Armenia's Security Crisis and the Events of 2021–2023

93. Political Instability After the War

Following the 2020 ceasefire, Armenia experienced sustained political confrontation.

Prime Minister Pashinyan faced demands for resignation.

In 2021, early parliamentary elections were held.

Pashinyan's Civil Contract party won a parliamentary majority, allowing him to continue governing.

The result demonstrated that Armenian society remained politically divided but that electoral institutions continued to provide a mechanism for determining national leadership.

94. Border Clashes With Azerbaijan

In 2021 and 2022, serious border tensions developed between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Armenia accused Azerbaijani forces of entering internationally recognized Armenian territory.

Azerbaijan disputed some Armenian accounts and advanced its own interpretations of the border and security situation.

In September 2022, major fighting occurred along the interstate border.

The clashes caused substantial casualties and raised concerns about Armenia's territorial integrity.

The fighting differed from earlier conflict confined primarily to Nagorno-Karabakh because it directly affected the internationally recognized territory of the Republic of Armenia.

95. The Lachin Corridor Crisis

The Lachin corridor connected Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia.

Following the 2020 war, it was supposed to remain open under the terms of the trilateral statement, with Russian peacekeeping supervision.

Beginning in December 2022, movement through the corridor became severely restricted.

The restrictions produced shortages of food, medicine, fuel, and other essential supplies in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenian authorities and international organizations raised serious humanitarian concerns.

Azerbaijan defended its measures through arguments involving sovereignty, security, and control of its internationally recognized territory.

The crisis intensified the vulnerability of the region's Armenian population.

96. Azerbaijan's September 2023 Offensive

On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Armenian forces in the region rapidly lost the ability to continue organized resistance.

A ceasefire was reached the following day.

In the aftermath, more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled Nagorno-Karabakh for Armenia.

The displacement effectively ended the longstanding Armenian presence as the region's principal resident population.

The self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic's institutions were dismantled, and Azerbaijan established control over the territory.

The mass exodus created a major humanitarian challenge for Armenia.

The Republic of Armenia had to provide shelter, assistance, education, healthcare, and social support to displaced families.

The events also raised questions about the protection of cultural heritage, property rights, detainees, and the conditions under which displaced Armenians might safely return.

The Council on Foreign Relations documents the military and humanitarian consequences of the September 2023 offensive.

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