Historical Assessment of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War
92. Why Azerbaijan Won
Azerbaijan's victory resulted from a combination of factors rather than one weapon or tactical innovation.
Its military modernization had increased the quality and quantity of available equipment.
Turkish assistance strengthened training, operational coordination, and access to advanced systems.
Azerbaijan used drones and precision weapons effectively against Armenian military assets.
Its southern offensive exploited terrain and created opportunities for maneuver.
The capture of strategically important settlements progressively weakened Armenian defenses.
Azerbaijani special operations forces played a significant role in the final campaign around Shushi.
The ability to sustain operations over several weeks was also important.
By contrast, Armenian forces faced mounting equipment losses, logistical difficulties, and the erosion of defensive positions.
The capture of Shushi ultimately transformed the operational situation and accelerated the end of the war.
93. Why Armenian Defenses Failed
The Armenian defeat exposed vulnerabilities in military planning and preparedness.
Static defenses proved increasingly vulnerable to aerial reconnaissance and precision strikes.
Air-defense capabilities were insufficient to protect all important formations and installations.
The loss of southern positions undermined the broader defensive system.
Military commanders faced difficulties maintaining coherent lines as Azerbaijani forces advanced through multiple sectors.
Political and military leaders were also confronted with decisions under rapidly deteriorating circumstances.
It is important to distinguish between the bravery of individual soldiers and the effectiveness of a state's overall military strategy.
Many Armenian soldiers fought under extremely difficult conditions.
Their individual conduct does not alter the broader conclusion that Armenian military institutions were unable to prevent Azerbaijan's sustained offensive.
94. The Role of Military Technology
The war became a landmark example of the growing importance of unmanned aerial systems.
However, its lessons extend beyond drones.
It demonstrated the value of integrating reconnaissance, communications, artillery, infantry, electronic warfare, and precision strike capabilities.
It also highlighted the vulnerability of military equipment operating without adequate concealment or air defense.
The conflict influenced military discussions internationally, particularly regarding the survivability of armored formations and fixed positions in an environment of persistent surveillance.
The most important lesson was not that conventional armies had become obsolete.
Rather, conventional forces needed to adapt to a battlefield where detection and precision engagement had become increasingly rapid.
95. The Failure of Diplomacy
The war also represented a failure of long-term conflict prevention.
For more than two decades, international mediators sought a negotiated settlement.
The parties were unable to agree on the relationship between territorial withdrawal, security guarantees, refugee return, and Nagorno-Karabakh's final status.
The absence of an enforceable agreement allowed military competition to continue.
As Azerbaijan's military capabilities increased, the incentives for resolving the conflict through negotiations changed.
The 2020 war demonstrated that an unresolved ceasefire arrangement can remain vulnerable to renewed large-scale violence even after decades without full-scale war.
96. The Long-Term Consequences for Armenian Historical Memory
For Armenians, the war became a defining event in contemporary national history.
The loss of Shushi, Hadrut, and other Armenian-populated areas carried profound emotional significance.
The deaths of thousands of soldiers and civilians affected families throughout Armenia and the diaspora.
The subsequent displacement of Nagorno-Karabakh's Armenian population in 2023 intensified the sense of historical loss.
Religious monuments, cemeteries, villages, family homes, and cultural institutions became central to discussions about preservation and identity.
The events also prompted debate about Armenia's national security, foreign relations, military institutions, and political future.
97. The Long-Term Consequences for Azerbaijani Historical Memory
For Azerbaijan, the war became a defining moment in the restoration of territorial control.
The recovery of territories lost during the First War was central to the government's political narrative.
The return of displaced Azerbaijani communities became an important national objective.
Shusha acquired renewed symbolic importance as a center of Azerbaijani cultural and historical identity.
The victory also strengthened Azerbaijan's regional position and shaped its subsequent diplomatic strategy.
Yet the achievement of territorial control did not remove the obligations of the Azerbaijani state toward civilians, cultural heritage, and the rights of all people affected by the conflict.
98. The Human Meaning of the War
Beyond strategic assessments, the war was experienced through individual lives.
It meant parents waiting for news of sons serving at the front.
It meant civilians sheltering underground while artillery struck nearby neighborhoods.
It meant families abandoning homes without knowing whether they would ever return.
It meant doctors treating the wounded under emergency conditions.
It meant soldiers fighting in difficult mountainous terrain.
It meant communities losing churches, schools, cemeteries, businesses, and familiar landscapes.
The suffering of Armenian and Azerbaijani civilians must be understood as human experiences rather than merely as elements of competing national narratives.
Historical scholarship requires documenting violations accurately, recognizing the rights of victims, and resisting efforts to justify attacks against civilians.