The Failed Ceasefires and the Final Days of the War
53. The First Humanitarian Ceasefire: October 10
As casualties increased, Russia attempted to mediate a cessation of hostilities.
Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers met in Moscow for negotiations facilitated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
On October 10, the parties announced a humanitarian ceasefire intended to permit the exchange of prisoners and the recovery of bodies.
The arrangement did not produce a lasting halt to combat.
Both sides accused the other of violations, and fighting continued across the front.
The failure reflected the difficulty of enforcing a ceasefire while the military balance was changing rapidly and neither side trusted the other's intentions.
54. The Second Ceasefire: October 18
Another humanitarian ceasefire was announced for October 18, following diplomatic efforts involving Russia, France, and other international actors.
This agreement also failed to stop major military operations.
Artillery exchanges and ground offensives continued.
The repeated failures demonstrated that diplomatic declarations alone were insufficient without effective monitoring, enforcement mechanisms, and a political agreement acceptable to both parties.
55. The Third Ceasefire: October 26
A further humanitarian ceasefire was announced following negotiations facilitated by the United States.
It was scheduled to take effect on October 26.
Once again, both sides reported violations shortly after the arrangement began.
The war continued.
By this stage, Azerbaijan had achieved substantial territorial gains and was approaching strategically important positions near Shushi and Lachin.
The Armenian side was experiencing increasing military pressure.
56. The Final Military Crisis
By early November, the Armenian defensive position had deteriorated substantially.
Azerbaijani forces had captured large areas in the south and reached the approaches to Shushi.
The loss of Hadrut, Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Zangilan, and Qubadli had weakened Armenian control over the surrounding territory.
The capture of Shushi created an immediate threat to Stepanakert and nearby military positions.
Continuing the war risked additional losses and potentially a much larger humanitarian disaster.
These conditions created the immediate background for the final ceasefire negotiations.
57. The Russian Helicopter Incident
On November 9, 2020, an Azerbaijani missile struck a Russian Mi-24 helicopter near the Armenian village of Yeraskh, close to the border with Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave.
Two Russian crew members were killed and another was injured.
Azerbaijan acknowledged responsibility, apologized, and stated that the helicopter had been struck accidentally.
The incident occurred during the final hours of the war and underscored the danger of the conflict expanding into a confrontation involving Russia.
58. November 9–10: The Trilateral Ceasefire Agreement
Late on November 9, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a statement ending major hostilities.
The ceasefire took effect at midnight Moscow time on November 10.
The agreement halted the Azerbaijani offensive and required the opposing forces to remain at their existing positions.
It also established the deployment of Russian peacekeepers and provided for Armenian withdrawal from additional territories.
The agreement was not a comprehensive peace treaty. It was a ceasefire and postwar security arrangement that left significant political and legal questions unresolved.