September 19, 2023: Azerbaijan Launches Its Final Offensive

The start of military operations

On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale military operation against Armenian positions in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense described the operation as local anti-terrorist measures.

Azerbaijan cited security concerns, including landmine explosions that killed Azerbaijani personnel and civilians, and demanded the disarmament of Armenian armed formations and the dissolution of the region's de facto governing structures.

Armenian authorities rejected the characterization of the operation as counterterrorism and described it as an attack against Nagorno-Karabakh's Armenian population.

Azerbaijani forces used artillery, drones, and ground units against military positions and other targets.

Fighting occurred around several settlements, and explosions were reported in and near Stepanakert, known officially in Azerbaijan as Khankendi.

Civilians sought shelter in basements, public buildings, and other locations.

Some families attempted to move from exposed villages toward the regional capital.

The condition of Armenian defensive forces

The Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh entered the September fighting under exceptionally unfavorable conditions.

They had suffered heavy losses during the 2020 war and lacked the military capabilities available to Azerbaijan.

The blockade had also restricted supplies, movement, and logistical support.

Azerbaijan possessed substantial advantages in artillery, drones, military resources, and operational mobility.

Armenia's government did not launch a direct military intervention against Azerbaijan during the September offensive.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenian armed forces were not stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh, a claim disputed by Azerbaijan in the context of its allegations about Armenian military formations.

Russian peacekeepers did not conduct a military intervention sufficient to stop Azerbaijan's offensive.

The imbalance meant that organized resistance collapsed rapidly.

Civilian casualties and destruction

The fighting killed and injured combatants and civilians.

Initial casualty reporting was difficult to verify because communication networks, medical services, and transportation were disrupted.

Armenian officials later reported more than 200 deaths associated with the military offensive, including civilian casualties, with hundreds wounded. Different official and investigative sources have reported varying totals depending on which categories and time periods were included.

The United Nations and international human rights organizations called for the protection of civilians and compliance with international humanitarian law.

International humanitarian law requires parties to distinguish between combatants and civilians, prohibit indiscriminate attacks, and take precautions to minimize civilian harm.

The precise circumstances of individual attacks require independent investigation rather than assumptions based solely on the identity of the forces involved.

September 20: The ceasefire

On September 20, approximately 24 hours after the operation began, a ceasefire was announced under Russian peacekeeper mediation.

The agreement required the disarmament and disbandment of Nagorno-Karabakh's Armenian armed formations and the withdrawal or disposal of military equipment.

Representatives of the local Armenian authorities subsequently met Azerbaijani officials to discuss the future of the population and the territory.

The ceasefire ended organized large-scale resistance, but it did not resolve the population's fears.

For Armenian residents, the question was no longer simply whether the fighting would stop.

It was whether they could safely remain in their homes under Azerbaijani authority.