Why the Armenian Population Feared Remaining

The mass departure did not occur in isolation. It was shaped by decades of conflict, displacement, atrocities, political hostility, and the immediate experience of the blockade and offensive.

Memories of earlier violence

Many Armenian residents remembered or had family histories connected to anti-Armenian violence during the late Soviet period.

The Sumgait pogrom of February 1988, violence in Baku in January 1990, and other attacks became central to collective memories of insecurity.

The First Nagorno-Karabakh War and the 2020 war reinforced fears of renewed violence.

Human rights organizations documented serious abuses against Armenian prisoners and civilians during and after the 2020 conflict, including torture, cruel treatment, and unlawful killings.

These documented abuses contributed to widespread distrust of assurances that Armenian civilians would be safe under Azerbaijani administration.

The consequences of the blockade

The blockade reinforced the perception that the population could be deprived of essential supplies and humanitarian access.

Residents had already experienced months of food insecurity, medical shortages, restrictions on movement, and uncertainty.

The September military offensive occurred before those conditions had been meaningfully resolved.

Lack of independent security guarantees

Azerbaijan stated that Armenian residents could remain and be reintegrated as Azerbaijani citizens.

However, many residents feared that promises of equal rights would not be enforced.

They sought credible protections involving independent monitoring, personal security, cultural and religious rights, and safeguards against arbitrary detention.

Such arrangements had not been established when the exodus began.

The role of public rhetoric

Years of hostile rhetoric and nationalist narratives on both sides had contributed to an atmosphere of fear.

For Armenian residents, statements by Azerbaijani officials and public figures denying aspects of Armenian historical identity or portraying Armenian institutions as illegitimate heightened concerns about their future.

Azerbaijan, in turn, emphasized its internationally recognized sovereignty and the rights of Azerbaijanis displaced in earlier wars.

These competing claims existed alongside an immediate reality: the Armenian civilian population did not trust that remaining would be safe.

Human Rights Watch documented how fear of persecution, past atrocities, and the absence of reliable security guarantees contributed to the mass departure.

Human Rights Watch